Emissions intensity continues to fall for oil sands production

External study shows a 31 per cent reduction for the sector since 2009

September 22, 2026

An annual analysis tracking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity found the oil sands continued a multi-decade trend of lowering the intensity of the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in its products.

New York-based S&P Global Energy, which analyzes global energy and commodities markets from more than 60 offices around the world, released its latest annual review in May. It found the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has declined by 31 per cent, or nearly 27 kilograms CO₂e per barrel.

“It’s a very clear trend because we’ve seen the number go up only once in the 17 years we’ve done this analysis. We’ve even seen declines in years where the conditions were such that we expected to see an increase,” says lead author Kevin Birn, S&P Global Energy’s Vice President and Head of Carbon Research. “It speaks to the power of efficiency in this sector as much as anything. Oil sands companies use fossil fuels to create heat and power for their operations and they have been using that energy more efficiently.”

That efficiency stems from several factors, including technological advances and operational improvements.

The study breaks down the range of emissions intensity for different products and sources, including mining and steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations.

The growth of less GHG-intense SAGD production, the development of less intensive mining operations, the ramp-up of new facilities and optimization of legacy operations have all contributed to a lower average oil sands intensity.

Increased production and less downtime have also lowered overall emissions intensity. That stems from operators seeing improvements through predictive maintenance and shorter maintenance turnaround periods.

“Operators have found ways to complete maintenance cycles in a shorter time frame,” says Celina Hwang, S&P Global Energy’s Director for North American Crude Oil Markets. “If you’re able to do the same amount of maintenance faster, you’re able to produce more and reduce your overall costs. This helps produce more barrels, which also reduces your intensity of emissions.”

SAGD operations benefited from several factors that helped lower emissions intensity:

• Using improved drilling technology, such as longer lateral wells to provide more contact with the hydrocarbons in the underground formation, meaning more oil can be recovered with fewer wells.
• Optimizing well placement to access the most resource-dense part of the reservoir, avoiding more challenging areas, and ultimately recovering more oil with fewer wells.
• Monitoring the underground steam chamber to manage heat distribution and reduce inefficient steam use.
• Using performance data to inform maintenance plans so repairs can be done proactively, reducing operational downtime and increasing efficiency.
• Using non-condensable gas (NCG) co-injection, where a gas such as methane is injected alongside steam into the reservoir. The NCG replaces some of the steam that’s needed in SAGD, which helps reduce the intensity of fuel consumption, and thus emissions per barrel.

Mining operations saw emissions intensity fall through improved fleet optimization – using less fuel for equipment to operate more efficiently – and capturing waste heat from operations and re-using it better. The biggest single decline in the oil sands sector was by legacy integrated mining operations, which reduced emissions intensity by 32 per cent.

”Some of the older, more carbon intensive facilities have captured significant gains in operational efficiency so while production growth in less intensive GHG production from SAGD has helped bring the industry number down, the sector is largely trending in the right direction,” Birn says. “And you do have step-out technology improvements that have helped, such as the Shell Quest carbon capture, utilization and storage project in 2015 and Suncor’s boiler replacement project.

“We have found the oil sands, which is an extra heavy sour crude oil, to be within the range of other similar quality crudes internationally, such as the ones produced in Venezuela and Columbia,” Birn says. “The reality is the emissions intensity of other plays isn’t as low as people anticipated and the intensity of emissions in the oil sands is falling.”

The study’s findings were welcomed by the Oil Sands Alliance, which represents five of the largest oil sands producers.

“We’re focused on advancing environmental innovation to help ensure our industry can continue providing economic benefits and secure energy for decades to come,” says Kendall Dilling, president of Oil Sands Alliance. “This report reinforces that as a result of new technologies, innovations and operational improvements, oil sands emissions intensity has continued to decline over the past decade.”